Cardinals eye a future-ready pontiff: beyond race, geopolitics and tradition in the Vatican conclave

VATICAN CITY. The cardinals of the Catholic Church face a daunting task as they gather to elect the next pope, not simply deciding whether the Church’s next leader should be Asian, African, conservative, or progressive, but choosing someone capable of revitalizing a 2,000-year-old institution struggling with modern challenges.

On Wednesday afternoon, 133 cardinal-electors from 70 countries will enter the Sistine Chapel to begin the sacred process of the conclave, the centuries-old tradition that will eventually lead to the white smoke rising above the Vatican. Their choice must gain a two-thirds majority, at least 89 votes.

More than demographics or ideology, many cardinals are emphasizing the urgent need for a pope who can restore the Church’s relevance, particularly among young people, amid the backdrop of sexual abuse scandals, financial instability, and growing secularism.

“We need a Superman!” said Cardinal William Seng Chye Goh, the 67-year-old Archbishop of Singapore, underscoring the gravity of the mission.

Goh noted that the top priority among electors is to choose a pontiff capable of evangelization in today’s world. “How to reach out to young people, how to show a face of love, joy, and hope,” he said.

A Church Facing a Tectonic Shift

While Europe has historically been the Church’s stronghold, its influence is waning. Empty pews and disillusionment have led to mass resignations from Church rolls, particularly in places like Germany. In contrast, the Church is booming in Africa and Asia, not just in membership but also in vocations to the priesthood and religious life.

“Asia is ripe for evangelization and the harvest of vocations,” said Rev. Robert Reyes, a Filipino priest and seminary classmate of Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, often mentioned as a possible first Asian pope.

Indian Cardinal Oswald Gracias, though now over 80 and ineligible to vote, emphasized the spiritual potential of the East: “The center of gravity of the world is shifting toward Asia. The Asian church has much to give to the world.”

Asia counts 23 cardinal-electors, second only to Europe’s 53, though one European cardinal is not expected to participate for health reasons.

China and Other Geopolitical Tensions

One of the most politically sensitive issues facing the next pope is the Vatican’s relationship with China. In 2018, Pope Francis approved a controversial agreement with Beijing regarding the appointment of bishops. While some praised it as a diplomatic necessity, many conservatives saw it as a betrayal of underground Catholics loyal to Rome during decades of persecution.

The future of that agreement remains in question under the new papacy.

The African Perspective

Catholics in Africa now make up roughly 20% of the global Catholic population, with continued growth in both lay and religious life. Still, African leaders in the Church insist that the next pope must transcend national and continental interests.

“I am not here for the Congo, I am not here for Africa, I am here for the universal church. That is our concern, the universal church,” said Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, Archbishop of Kinshasa. “When we are done, I will return to Kinshasa and I will put back on my archbishop of Kinshasa hat and the struggle continues.”

In contrast, Cardinal Jean-Paul Vesco of Algiers expressed regret about the lack of personal familiarity among many of the cardinal-electors, noting the unprecedented geographic diversity of this conclave. Still, he remained hopeful: “It is what I call an artichoke heart. Every day, I say to myself, ‘Ah! Oh my God! There we have it!’”

Divine Guidance or Human Decision?

Amid strategic considerations and pastoral needs, many cardinals maintain that the Holy Spirit ultimately guides their choice. But not all believe this guarantees a flawless outcome.

In 1997, then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, later Pope Benedict XVI, remarked in an interview with Bavarian television that the Holy Spirit does not necessarily dictate the result of the conclave. “Probably the only assurance he offers is that the thing cannot be totally ruined,” he said. “There are too many contrary instances of popes the Holy Spirit would obviously not have picked.”

As the conclave begins, one thing is clear: the next pope will inherit not just a throne, but a Church deeply in need of vision, credibility, and unity in an increasingly polarized world.