WASHINGTON. Former President Donald Trump has been convicted by a New York jury on felony charges of falsifying business records. This historic conviction places his fate in the hands of Judge Juan Merchan, whom Trump has repeatedly criticized as “corrupt” and “incompetent.”
Despite the gravity of the charges, legal experts suggest that Trump, due to his age, lack of a prior criminal record, and other factors, is unlikely to face imprisonment. “I’d be very surprised if there’s any sentence of incarceration at all,” said former federal prosecutor Chuck Rosenberg, now an NBC News analyst. Trump, 77, was found guilty on 34 counts, a class E felony that can result in a fine, probation, or up to four years in prison.
However, Ron Kuby, a seasoned New York criminal defense lawyer, offers a contrasting perspective. “Judge Merchan is known for being a harsh sentencer when it comes to white-collar crimes committed by people who have wealth and privilege and power,” Kuby noted, suggesting it is “substantially likely” Trump could face jail or prison time.
The sentencing, scheduled for July 11, will be influenced by various factors, including Trump’s behavior during the trial. Despite repeated violations of the gag order imposed by Judge Merchan, such behavior is unlikely to impact the sentencing decision, according to Kuby.
Former prosecutor Arthur Aidala highlighted that Judge Merchan would likely review similar cases to determine an appropriate sentence, considering Trump’s age, lack of criminal record, and the non-violent nature of the offenses. Aidala predicts a “non-jail disposition.”
An analysis by Norm Eisen, a legal expert involved in Trump’s first impeachment, found that only about one in ten individuals convicted of falsifying business records serve jail time, typically in cases involving additional crimes.
The 34 counts against Trump stem from a scheme that lasted over a year, which Kuby argues reflects a consistent pattern of illegal behavior rather than an isolated incident. This could influence Judge Merchan’s sentencing decision.
Regardless of the sentencing outcome, Trump is expected to appeal the conviction. The appeal process could delay any potential imprisonment for years, particularly if the case reaches higher courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court.
If Trump were to become president again, it would further complicate his incarceration. “If he becomes president of the United States he cannot be incarcerated in a state prison while he’s in office,” Kuby explained, citing constitutional duties.
This story originally appeared on NBCNews.com.
Gary P Hernal started college at UP Diliman and received his BA in Economics from San Sebastian College, Manila, and Masters in Information Systems Management from Keller Graduate School of Management of DeVry University in Oak Brook, IL. He has 25 years of copy editing and management experience at Thomson West, a subsidiary of Thomson Reuters.
