PARIS. According to exit polls, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party achieved historic gains in the first round of France’s parliamentary election on Sunday. However, the outcome remains uncertain, pending a week of political maneuvering before the run-off.
Exit polls from Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay, and Elabe showed the RN winning around 34% of the vote, marking a substantial setback for President Emmanuel Macron. Macron had called the snap election after his party was defeated by the RN in the European Parliament elections earlier this month.
The RN’s share of the vote significantly outpaced that of its leftist and centrist rivals. Macron’s Together alliance was projected to win between 20.5% and 23%, while the New Popular Front (NFP), a quickly assembled left-wing coalition, was seen winning about 29% of the vote.
The exit polls aligned with pre-election opinion surveys and were met with celebration by Le Pen’s supporters. However, they did not clarify whether the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic RN will be able to form a government to “cohabit” with the pro-EU Macron after next Sunday’s run-off.
Once considered a pariah in French politics, the RN is now closer to power than ever. Le Pen has worked to reform the image of a party historically associated with racism and antisemitism. This strategy has resonated with voters discontented with Macron, rising living costs, and immigration issues.
At Le Pen’s Henin-Beaumont constituency in northern France, supporters waved French flags and sang the Marseillaise. “The French have shown their willingness to turn the page on a contemptuous and corrosive power,” Le Pen told the crowd.
The RN’s chances of securing power next week depend on the political negotiations of its rivals in the coming days. Historically, center-right and center-left parties have united to prevent the RN from gaining power, a strategy known as the “republican front,” which is now less certain.
If no candidate reaches 50% in the first round, the top two contenders automatically qualify for the second round, along with those who receive 12.5% of registered voters. In the run-off, the candidate with the most votes wins the constituency.
High turnout on Sunday suggests a record number of three-way run-offs, which generally benefit the RN more than two-way contests, according to experts.
Political maneuvering began almost immediately on Sunday night. Macron urged voters to support candidates who are “clearly Republican and democratic,” a stance that excludes candidates from the RN and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party based on his recent statements.
Political leaders from the center-left and far-left called on their third-placed candidates to withdraw. “Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally,” France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon stated.
However, the center-right Republican party, which had some lawmakers join the RN ahead of the vote, did not provide any guidance.
Gary P Hernal started college at UP Diliman and received his BA in Economics from San Sebastian College, Manila, and Masters in Information Systems Management from Keller Graduate School of Management of DeVry University in Oak Brook, IL. He has 25 years of copy editing and management experience at Thomson West, a subsidiary of Thomson Reuters.
