The leaders of both Hamas and Israel find themselves entangled in the complex process of negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza. The outcome of these talks could determine their political futures, and for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, even his physical survival.
The latest negotiations have faced numerous challenges, with prior attempts to reach an agreement collapsing. US President Joe Biden’s three-phase plan, outlined on Friday, aims to bring an end to the conflict, secure the release of hostages, and pave the way for the reconstruction of Palestinian territories. However, Biden acknowledged that transitioning from a limited hostage-for-prisoner deal to a permanent ceasefire will be “difficult.”
The United States has submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council supporting Biden’s ceasefire plan. The first phase involves the release of dozens of hostages, both living and dead, a move that would be widely welcomed in Israel, where the failure to free all hostages held by Hamas has been a significant point of contention.
Hamas, however, is unlikely to release its most politically sensitive hostages without assurances that Israel will not resume the conflict once they are freed. Leaks reported by Israeli media suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told parliamentary colleagues that Israel will keep its options open, including the possibility of resuming military actions until Hamas is “eliminated.” Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition partners are expected to demand nothing less.
Netanyahu needs to secure the support of his coalition to avoid the prospect of early elections and to manage his ongoing corruption trial. This necessitates keeping long-term options open, including military action, while navigating the initial hostage negotiations. Conversely, Hamas is pushing for permanent ceasefire guarantees before making significant concessions.
The ongoing struggle is highlighted by the provocative actions of both sides. On May 19, during a routine resupply mission for Filipino troops stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre, Chinese coast guard boats came dangerously close to the ship, prompting Philippine troops to prepare for self-defense without pointing their weapons at the Chinese vessels. The confrontation underscored the delicate balance of power and the high stakes involved in territorial disputes.
As both parties grapple with internal and external pressures, the success of Biden’s ceasefire plan hinges on Netanyahu’s ability to find alternatives to the total elimination of Hamas and on the willingness of Hamas leaders to negotiate terms that could ensure a long-term peace.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak noted that Biden announced the deal only after observing Netanyahu’s cautious approach, aware that Sinwar might refuse any terms that do not include his survival. The complex dynamics of these negotiations underscore the fragile nature of the proposed ceasefire.
In the meantime, thousands of Israelis displaced by the October 7 Hamas attacks are anxiously awaiting the outcome. Yarin Sultan, a 31-year-old mother of three from Sderot, expressed her concerns, fearing that a ceasefire without the removal of key Hamas leaders would lead to future violence.
“This ceasefire will kill us,” Sultan told the BBC. “We will free the hostages, but a few years from now you will be the next hostages, you will be the next people who get murdered, the women that are raped – all this will happen again.”
Gary P Hernal started college at UP Diliman and received his BA in Economics from San Sebastian College, Manila, and Masters in Information Systems Management from Keller Graduate School of Management of DeVry University in Oak Brook, IL. He has 25 years of copy editing and management experience at Thomson West, a subsidiary of Thomson Reuters.
