Automation has been an ongoing process since the Industrial Revolution, gradually replacing human labor with machines. This trend initially affected agriculture and skilled crafts, and later extended to mass manufacturing and clerical tasks. However, the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics have led to concerns that a new generation of smart machines could potentially replace a significant portion of human jobs.
While there is some truth to this argument, recent research suggests that the impact might not be as dire as feared. According to a study conducted for the UK and a report on China, upcoming waves of automation fueled by AI might not result in widespread job displacement for two main reasons.
Firstly, the fact that a job has the technical potential to be automated doesn’t guarantee that it will happen. Economic, political, regulatory, and organizational factors could delay or block automation. Analysis indicates that only around 20% of existing jobs in the UK and around 26% in China might actually be displaced by AI and related technologies over the next two decades. This is referred to as the ‘displacement effect’.
Secondly, AI and related technologies can drive economic growth and create new job opportunities. AI systems and robots can enhance productivity, reduce costs, and improve product quality. Successful companies will boost profits, leading to reinvestment and ultimately lowering prices for consumers. This, in turn, increases real income levels, leading to increased consumer demand and job creation.
Research suggests that the net impact on jobs in the UK is projected to be broadly neutral, with around 20% of jobs being displaced and an equal number of new jobs being created. Sectors like healthcare could see net job gains due to an aging population and the need for human interaction. In China, while agricultural employment might be negatively impacted, construction and services are expected to see substantial job growth.
While concerns of mass technological unemployment might be overstated, governments and businesses need to adapt to the changing landscape. China, for instance, might witness the displacement of around 200 million jobs over the next two decades, necessitating worker mobility and retraining. Investment in retraining and upskilling, along with a focus on human skills that are harder to automate, becomes crucial. Businesses must promote a culture of lifelong learning, and governments should strengthen social safety nets to ensure that the benefits of AI and related technologies are widely distributed.
In conclusion, while AI could impact job markets and business models, the combination of the displacement and income effects, along with economic growth, is expected to result in a more balanced scenario than anticipated. Adapting to this evolving landscape will be crucial for maximizing the benefits of AI and minimizing potential disruptions.
Economic World Forum contributed to this story.
Si Venus L Peñaflor ay naging editor-in-chief ng Newsworld, isang lokal na pahayagan ng Laguna. Publisher din siya ng Daystar Gazette at Tutubi News Magazine. Siya ay isa ring pintor at doll face designer ng Ninay Dolls, ang unang Manikang Pilipino. Kasali siya sa DesignCrowd sa rank na #305 sa 640,000 graphic designers sa buong daigdig. Kasama din siya sa unang Local TV Broadcast sa Laguna na Beyond Manila. Aktibong kasapi siya ng San Pablo Jaycees Senate bilang isang JCI Senator.
