BEIRUT. The specter of a full-scale conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia looms large, sparking fears on both sides of the border. While neither party desires war, concerns are mounting that it could be an inevitable consequence of Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
The aftermath of the 2006 war, a month-long struggle that ended in a stalemate, provides a backdrop for the current tensions. Both Israel and Hezbollah have had time to learn from that experience, and they’ve been preparing for the possibility of another conflict over the past four months, despite U.S. efforts to prevent an escalation.
Recalling the 2006 War:
The 2006 conflict erupted after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid, leading Israel to launch a comprehensive air and ground offensive. Despite heavy bombing that devastated parts of south Lebanon and Beirut, and Hezbollah firing rockets into northern Israel, the war ended in a draw, claiming the lives of 1,200 Lebanese (mostly civilians) and 160 Israelis (mostly soldiers). A UN resolution called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and the establishment of a demilitarized zone on the Lebanese side of the border.
Likelihood of War:
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has termed an Israel-Hezbollah war a “total disaster.” The recent escalation, triggered by Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, has led to daily cross-border strikes. While neither side has explicitly threatened war, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, warned of a fight “without limits” if Israel initiates hostilities.
Preparedness:
Both Israel and Hezbollah have enhanced their capabilities since 2006, but economic crises have left Lebanon more fragile. Israel has evacuated 60,000 residents from border towns, while Lebanon has adopted an emergency plan projecting the displacement of 1 million Lebanese for 45 days.
Potential Outcomes:
A full-scale war could spread to multiple fronts, involving Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. It might also draw the U.S., Israel’s closest ally, deeper into the conflict. Hezbollah’s substantial arsenal of 150,000 to 200,000 rockets poses a significant threat, with the potential to target vital facilities and densely populated areas.
In the event of war, Lebanon’s infrastructure would likely suffer, while Israel, with its air defense systems, is better protected. However, both nations face challenges, and a miscalculation could lead to a wider conflict that proves difficult to control.
The situation remains precarious, with diplomatic solutions seemingly elusive. The international community watches closely as the region grapples with the potential for a devastating war that neither Israel nor Lebanon desires, but many fear may become inevitable.
Si Venus L Peñaflor ay naging editor-in-chief ng Newsworld, isang lokal na pahayagan ng Laguna. Publisher din siya ng Daystar Gazette at Tutubi News Magazine. Siya ay isa ring pintor at doll face designer ng Ninay Dolls, ang unang Manikang Pilipino. Kasali siya sa DesignCrowd sa rank na #305 sa 640,000 graphic designers sa buong daigdig. Kasama din siya sa unang Local TV Broadcast sa Laguna na Beyond Manila. Aktibong kasapi siya ng San Pablo Jaycees Senate bilang isang JCI Senator.
