JERUSALEM. A series of missile intercepts over northern Israel and fires from airstrikes in southern Lebanon signal a potential expansion of the Gaza war into a broader conflict. Analysts warn that this poses significant risks for both Israel and Hezbollah.
On Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah issued stark warnings, claiming that “nowhere in Israel would be safe” in the event of a war, and that even Cyprus and other Mediterranean regions could be targeted. This rhetoric heightens the already tense atmosphere, as Hezbollah has been launching rockets at Israel in solidarity with its Palestinian ally Hamas since the Gaza conflict began in October. This escalation has displaced tens of thousands in both Israel and Lebanon, intensifying political and military pressure.
U.S. President Joe Biden has responded by sending special envoy Amos Hochstein to the region for diplomatic efforts, while Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israeli officials to avoid further escalation. Despite these efforts, Israeli jets continued to strike southern Lebanon on Thursday, killing a Hezbollah fighter identified as a commander. Hezbollah acknowledged the death but did not confirm the commander’s rank.
Former Israeli National Security Council official Orna Mizrahi expressed concern, stating, “None of the options is good but the big question is, how much can Israel suffer under this attack?” She noted that while the Israeli government may not want a full-scale war, the situation could lead to one.
In Lebanon, Nasrallah’s threats have left many bracing for a wider conflict. However, some analysts, like Hubert Faustmann of the University of Nicosia, suggest that these threats are part of a deterrent strategy rather than an indication of an imminent war. Faustmann believes Hezbollah aims to show its capabilities without seeking a full-scale conflict.
Hezbollah has a substantial military presence, with thousands of fighters experienced in the Syrian civil war and an extensive arsenal of missiles capable of reaching major Israeli cities. They also possess a large fleet of drones, demonstrated by a recent flight over Haifa, highlighting the threat to Israel’s key infrastructure.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Israel would respond with overwhelming force, potentially “turning Beirut into Gaza” if war breaks out. However, a larger conflict could strain Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, which has so far intercepted most of the hundreds of missiles fired by Hezbollah.
Seth G. Jones from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington remarked, “Hezbollah feels it has some leverage over the Israelis because an escalating war… would create terror in Israel.”
For weeks, Israeli commanders have been preparing for the possibility of expanded conflict in the north. The main phase of fighting in Gaza continues, with Israeli officials estimating weeks before it concludes. Despite needing rest and refitting after intense combat in Gaza, the Israeli army’s northern command has approved operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon.
Energy Minister Eli Cohen stated that the military is collaborating with energy authorities to protect Israel’s strategic electricity infrastructure, promising a strong retaliation against any attacks on it.
Lebanon’s already fragile power infrastructure, crippled by decades of poor governance and conflicts, faces further strain from the current tensions. Israel’s history in Lebanon includes a prolonged military presence after the 1982 invasion and a subsequent 2006 war initiated by Hezbollah’s capture of two Israeli soldiers.
As summer begins, political pressure on Netanyahu is mounting. With around 60,000 Israelis evacuated to temporary accommodation and empty streets in dozens of towns, the return to normalcy seems distant. Approximately 90,000 people have also fled from southern Lebanon.
Sarit Zehavi, a former Israeli military intelligence official, emphasized the enduring threat from Hezbollah, stating, “For 17 years, we did nothing against the threat and now dealing with it will cost a very high price.”
Si Venus L Peñaflor ay naging editor-in-chief ng Newsworld, isang lokal na pahayagan ng Laguna. Publisher din siya ng Daystar Gazette at Tutubi News Magazine. Siya ay isa ring pintor at doll face designer ng Ninay Dolls, ang unang Manikang Pilipino. Kasali siya sa DesignCrowd sa rank na #305 sa 640,000 graphic designers sa buong daigdig. Kasama din siya sa unang Local TV Broadcast sa Laguna na Beyond Manila. Aktibong kasapi siya ng San Pablo Jaycees Senate bilang isang JCI Senator.
