The Kurdish fighters in Syria, long-standing allies of the United States, face a precarious future as a new political order emerges in the war-torn country. Following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by Sunni Arab rebels, the Kurds, who have carved out an autonomous region in eastern Syria during the 14-year civil war, now find their hard-won gains under increasing threat.
Kurds’ Role in Syria’s Civil War
Throughout the civil war, Kurdish fighters demonstrated resilience against various armed factions and became critical partners for the U.S. in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). Their efforts helped establish the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of Kurdish and Arab fighters that ousted ISIS from key strongholds, including Raqqa, the capital of the extremist group’s so-called caliphate, in 2017.
However, their strategic position in oil-rich eastern Syria is now being undermined by the Sunni Arab rebels who overthrew Assad, with significant support from Turkey, a long-time adversary of the Kurds. This shift poses a significant challenge to Kurdish aspirations for maintaining autonomy in the evolving political landscape.
Rebels and Turkey’s Role
The rebels, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, have promised to build an inclusive Syria. However, early actions have raised concerns. In Deir al-Zour, rebels forcibly expelled Kurdish fighters shortly after government forces abandoned the area.
Meanwhile, Turkey-backed opposition forces seized the northern town of Manbij, continuing their longstanding conflict with the Kurds. Turkish airstrikes targeted a Kurdish convoy, which Turkey claimed was carrying heavy weapons looted from Assad’s military arsenals.
Turkey’s hostility toward the Kurds stems from decades of conflict with the Kurdish insurgency within its borders. Ankara views the SDF as an extension of this insurgency and has consistently opposed Kurdish autonomy in Syria.
Rebels’ Stance on Kurdish Inclusion
Nawaf Khalil, head of the Germany-based Center for Kurdish Studies, noted that the new rebel leadership has so far avoided direct hostility toward Kurdish-controlled regions like Aleppo. “It is also positive that they did not speak negatively about the Syrian Democratic Forces,” Khalil said.
However, a video from a rebel fighter in Deir al-Zour this week hinted at potential conflict, as the rebels suggested plans to advance toward Raqqa, which remains under Kurdish control.
Uncertainty of U.S. Support
The Kurds have relied heavily on U.S. support, with approximately 900 American troops currently stationed in eastern Syria to aid the SDF and prevent an ISIS resurgence. However, the future of this partnership remains uncertain with the impending transition to a Trump administration.
President-elect Donald Trump’s foreign policy approach has historically been skeptical of U.S. involvement in the Middle East. In a social media post shortly before Assad’s fall, Trump stated:
“Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT.”
During his previous term, Trump faced backlash in 2019 after withdrawing support for Kurdish forces ahead of a Turkish military operation, a decision widely criticized as a betrayal of a key ally. Although he later reversed the decision to secure oil fields in eastern Syria, the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy under his leadership casts doubt on the future of Kurdish gains.
A Fragile Future
As the dust settles on Assad’s regime, the Kurds face a challenging road ahead. The possibility of negotiating with the rebels to preserve autonomy remains uncertain, especially given Turkey’s regional influence. Without a clear commitment from the U.S., the Kurds may find themselves in a vulnerable position as they navigate this critical juncture in Syria’s history.
The question remains whether the emerging political order will provide a space for Kurdish autonomy or further prolong the conflict in this deeply divided nation.
