Typhoon ‘Egay’ nears super typhoon category

Bagyong Egay: PAGASA Weather Update July 25, 2023

MANILA, Philippines. Typhoon ‘Egay’ (internationally known as Doksuri) has intensified further and is nearing super typhoon category, as announced by the state weather bureau PAGASA in its 5:00 am bulletin today, Tuesday, July 25, 2023.

At 4:00 am today, the center of Typhoon ‘Egay’s eye was estimated to be approximately 350 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan, based on all available data, including those from the Daet Doppler Weather Radar.

‘Egay’ currently has maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center, with gustiness reaching up to 215 km/h, and a central pressure of 935 hPa. The typhoon is moving in a west-northwestward direction at a speed of 15 km/h.

Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outward up to 680 km from the center.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. 3 Wind threat: Storm-force winds Warning lead time: 18 hours Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11) Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property.

Areas under TCWS No. 3:

• Babuyan Islands
• The northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Peñablanca, Gattaran, Lal-Lo, Alcala, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Ballesteros, Allacapan, Abulug, Claveria, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Lasam, Baggao, Amulung, Iguig)
• The northeastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Maconacon, Palanan)
• The northern portion of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Santa Marcela, Flora, Pudtol)

TCWS No. 2 Wind threat: Gale-force winds Warning lead time: 24 hours Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9) Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

Areas under TCWS No. 2:

• Batanes
• The rest of mainland Cagayan
• The rest of Isabela
• Quirino
• The northern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Diadi, Bagabag, Ambaguio, Villaverde, Solano, Bayombong)
• The rest of Apayao
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• The northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Kibungan), Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
• The northern and central portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao)

TCWS No. 1 Wind threat: Strong winds Warning lead time: 36 hours Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7) Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

Areas under TCWS No. 1:

• La Union
• Pangasinan
• The rest of Benguet
• The rest of Nueva Vizcaya
• The rest of Aurora
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Nueva Ecija
• Tarlac
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• Laguna
• Cavite
• Batangas
• Quezon
• Marinduque
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• The northern portion of Masbate (Uson, Dimasalang, City of Masbate, Mobo, Palanas, Aroroy, Baleno) including Burias and Ticao Islands
• Northern Samar
• The northern portion of Samar (San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City)
• The northern portion of Eastern Samar (Oras, Arteche, Jipapad, Dolores, San Policarpo, Maslog)

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

Typhoon ‘Egay’ is forecasted to move northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning generally west-northwestward and crossing the Luzon Strait.

Based on the track forecast, the typhoon is projected to make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-northeastern mainland Cagayan area between late evening today and tomorrow afternoon.

A slight northward or southward shift in this segment of the track, but still within the forecast confidence cone, may result in a landfall or close approach over northern mainland Cagayan or Batanes.

After passing the Babuyan Islands, ‘Egay’ will turn northwestward or north-northwestward and pass over the waters south of Taiwan.

It is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning. Outside the PAR region, ‘Egay’ will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall in the vicinity of Fujian, China on Friday morning.

‘Egay’ is expected to continue intensifying and may reach super typhoon category within 12 hours, although the window of intensification for this typhoon is closing. A weakening trend may begin as the typhoon passes over the Babuyan Islands due to the potential onset of an eyewall replacement cycle and interaction with the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon.

Further weakening is expected outside the PAR region due to an increasingly unfavorable environment and the eventual landfall over the landmass of China.

‘Bagyong Egay’ is the fifth tropical cyclone for 2023. It originated from an area of low pressure east of southeastern Luzon and developed into a tropical depression on Friday, July 21.

On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year, with only half projected to make landfall.