WASHINGTON. President Donald Trump’s recent string of abrupt tariff decisions is leaving countries around the world confused and frustrated, as they attempt to navigate an increasingly erratic U.S. trade policy landscape.
Over the past week, Trump has threatened to raise taxes on imports from Canada, increase the baseline tariff on global imports, and impose a 50 percent tax on goods from Brazil. On Saturday, he announced new tariffs of 30 percent on two of America’s largest trade partners, the European Union and Mexico.
Former U.S. trade negotiator Wendy Cutler said Trump’s actions reflect a growing level of unpredictability and incoherence in U.S. trade policy. “It’s hard for trading partners to know where they stand with Trump on any given day,” said Cutler, now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Canada, despite offering a major concession by dropping a digital services tax on U.S. tech companies, was hit with a sudden tariff increase to 35 percent on Thursday. The announcement came via a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, just weeks before a potential trade deal deadline on July 21.
Trump has also hinted at raising the “baseline” tariff on most imports from the current 10 percent to as much as 20 percent, as a way to fund tax cuts under the “One Big Beautiful Bill” signed on July 4.
The president’s decision to slap a 50 percent tariff on Brazil is being viewed as politically motivated. In a letter to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Trump accused Brazil of trade violations and defended his ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is facing trial over an attempt to overturn his 2022 election defeat. Contrary to Trump’s claims, U.S. exports to Brazil have exceeded imports for 18 straight years, including a $29 billion surplus in 2024.
Some analysts believe Trump is using tariffs not only for trade leverage but to influence foreign domestic affairs. “Trump seems to view tariffs as an instrument to influence not just other countries’ trade and economic policies but even their domestic legal and political matters,” said Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell University.
Despite limited success in previous efforts, Trump continues to believe in the power of tariffs. His April 2 announcement of a 10 percent baseline tariff and higher “reciprocal” tariffs of up to 50 percent on countries with U.S. trade deficits led to global market volatility, prompting a temporary 90-day suspension of the harsher penalties.
The administration promised “90 deals in 90 days,” but managed only two, with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, before the deadline. Trump has since notified 23 countries that tariffs between 20 and 50 percent will take effect on August 1 unless new agreements are reached.
Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, noted that many nations face domestic constraints that limit their ability to grant U.S. demands. “These just aren’t problems that can easily be solved in a matter of weeks,” he said.
Malaysia, for example, has pledged to buy 30 Boeing planes and offered other concessions, but its trade minister, Zafrul Aziz, warned that some U.S. demands — including changes to halal certification, medical standards, and digital taxation — cross “red lines.”
Still, the U.S. remains a powerful market that most countries cannot ignore. “These countries need the United States,” said Matthew Goodman, director at the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Geoeconomic Studies. “They need our market.”
Thailand, facing a looming 36 percent tariff, continues to negotiate, offering increased access for U.S. farm and industrial products.
Meanwhile, Trump has praised the deal with Vietnam, claiming it gives U.S. companies duty-free access while imposing a 20 percent tariff on Vietnamese exports. “It’s extremely one-sided,” said Stephen Miran, chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers.
But as Trump continues to apply pressure, resistance is building. Canada is pursuing trade talks with Southeast Asian nations, and some countries are drawing closer to China to reduce reliance on the U.S. economy.
Some governments may simply wait Trump out, expecting him to settle for symbolic victories. “For Trump, the squeeze is more important than the juice,” said William Reinsch, a former trade official at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “What’s important to him is winning, the public, visible appearance of winning.”
“The trick for these countries,” he added, “becomes: How do we let him win in a way that allows us to make the least damaging concessions?”
