JERUSALEM/CAIRO. Tensions between Israel and Hamas have escalated once again, threatening to derail the fragile 42-day ceasefire that has temporarily halted the devastating 16-month war in Gaza. Israel has issued a stern warning that “all hell will break loose” if Hamas does not proceed with a scheduled hostage release by Saturday, while Hamas accuses Israel of failing to meet its commitments under the truce.
The dispute erupted when Hamas declared that it would delay the next planned hostage release, citing Israel’s failure to deliver the agreed-upon aid, including tents and other critical supplies. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have made it clear that a failure to release the hostages would result in the immediate resumption of military operations.
“If Hamas stops releasing the hostages, then there is no deal and there is war,” Katz warned during a military briefing on Wednesday, echoing former U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric. He emphasized that Israel’s military was prepared to launch a new offensive in Gaza if Hamas did not comply with the agreement.
Hamas, however, has insisted that it remains committed to the ceasefire terms. “Accordingly, Hamas reaffirms its commitment to implementing the agreement as signed, including the exchange of prisoners according to the specified timeline,” the group stated on Thursday. Senior Hamas official Khalil Al-Hayya has been engaged in urgent talks with Egyptian security officials in Cairo, while both Egyptian and Qatari mediators are working to resolve the deadlock.
Despite the threats, there are indications that a compromise might be reached. An Egyptian official involved in the negotiations revealed that both parties were “close to an agreement” and that Israel had agreed to increase aid deliveries to Gaza, including mobile homes and construction equipment. Israeli officials have not officially confirmed this development, though the Israeli military agency COGAT claims that it has already facilitated the entry of 400,000 tents into Gaza.
The ceasefire deal, which took effect on January 19, stipulated that Hamas would release 33 hostages—eight of whom are presumed dead—in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. So far, 21 hostages have been freed. However, Hamas argues that Israel has not honored its end of the bargain, particularly in allowing sufficient aid into Gaza.
As tensions mount, an unexpected development has further fueled the crisis. On Thursday, the Israeli military reported that Hamas had fired a rocket from Gaza, violating the ceasefire agreement. Hamas officials claim that the missile was an unexploded Israeli ordinance that ignited while being moved away from a residential area, but Israel responded with an airstrike on the launcher.
The high-stakes standoff comes amid growing international concern over humanitarian conditions in Gaza. “We have seen improvement in some ways, but certainly, the response is nowhere near enough to meet the needs of so many people who face so much destruction and loss,” said Shaina Low of the Norwegian Refugee Council. She confirmed that while aid deliveries have continued, significant challenges remain due to Israeli restrictions on materials deemed to have dual military uses.
Meanwhile, widespread protests have erupted in Israel, with thousands taking to the streets demanding that Netanyahu uphold the ceasefire and secure the return of the remaining hostages. Israeli security cabinet member Avi Dichter downplayed Hamas’ ability to renegotiate terms, stating, “There’s a deal. They won’t be able to give anything less than what is in the deal.”
The war, which began after Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, has resulted in catastrophic casualties. Israeli sources report at least 1,200 deaths and over 250 hostages taken in the initial attack, while Gaza’s health officials estimate that more than 48,000 Palestinians have been killed in the ensuing Israeli bombardment.
With the deadline for the next hostage release fast approaching, all eyes are on Cairo, where negotiations continue. If a breakthrough is not reached, the ceasefire’s collapse could plunge the region back into full-scale conflict, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis and pushing the Middle East closer to wider war.
