GENEVA — The United Nations weather agency has warned that a moderate to potentially strong El Niño could develop in the coming months, raising global temperatures and increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events worldwide.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday that unusually warm ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific are driving the development of the climate pattern, which typically lasts nine to 12 months. It added that above-average global temperatures are expected from June to August, with conditions likely persisting until November.
While forecasts differ on the eventual strength of the phenomenon, the WMO cautioned that uncertainty should not delay preparedness measures.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
El Niño is known to disrupt global weather systems, bringing increased rainfall to parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, while triggering drought conditions in regions including Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia. It can also influence hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific.
The agency noted that the last strong El Niño in 2023 to 2024 contributed to record global temperatures in 2024, the hottest year on record.
Saulo warned that extreme heat linked to the phenomenon can worsen the spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, while also straining food and water supplies.
“Communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits,” she said.
The WMO also flagged potential economic impacts, including pressure on global food prices at a time when consumers are already facing inflation linked to geopolitical tensions.
In the agricultural sector, cocoa industry executives have raised concerns about possible crop stress in major producing regions such as Ecuador and West Africa. Hein Schumacher, chief executive of Barry Callebaut, said the company is closely monitoring conditions, warning that El Niño could further tighten supply.
London cocoa futures were last trading at £2,944 ($3,964.10) per metric ton, significantly below highs recorded in April 2024 when prices exceeded $9,000.
Some national meteorological agencies have suggested the possibility of a particularly strong event, though the WMO said it has observed unusually warm subsurface waters across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, forming a heat reservoir that is driving surface warming.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said the development underscores the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels.
“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said.
Si Venus L Peñaflor ay naging editor-in-chief ng Newsworld, isang lokal na pahayagan ng Laguna. Publisher din siya ng Daystar Gazette at Tutubi News Magazine. Siya ay isa ring pintor at doll face designer ng Ninay Dolls, ang unang Manikang Pilipino. Kasali siya sa DesignCrowd sa rank na #305 sa 640,000 graphic designers sa buong daigdig. Kasama din siya sa unang Local TV Broadcast sa Laguna na Beyond Manila. Aktibong kasapi siya ng San Pablo Jaycees Senate bilang isang JCI Senator.
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Paraluman P. Funtanilla
Paraluman P. Funtanilla is Tutubi News Magazine's Marketing Specialist and is a Contributing Editor. She finished her degree in Communication Arts in De La Salle Lipa. She has worked as a Digital Marketer for start-up businesses and small business spaces for the past two years. She has earned certificates from Coursera on Brand Management: Aligning Business Brand and Behavior and Viral Marketing and How to Craft Contagious Content. She also worked with Asia Express Romania TV Show.
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