DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The scale of Iran’s bloodiest crackdown on dissent since the 1979 Islamic Revolution is coming into sharper focus, even as the country remains largely cut off from the internet and the outside world, while its powerful Revolutionary Guard has issued a stark warning to the United States and Israel as American warships move toward the Middle East.
Demonstrations that began on December 28 at Tehran’s historic Grand Bazaar over the collapse of Iran’s currency, the rial, quickly spread nationwide. By January 8, protests intensified following calls from Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, with witnesses reporting tens of thousands in the streets before authorities imposed sweeping communication blackouts.
Cities and towns across Iran have since borne the marks of unrest and repression. Fire-damaged mosques and government buildings line streets, banks have been torched, and ATMs smashed. State-run IRNA news agency reports from more than 20 cities estimate at least $125 million in damage, including 750 banks, 414 government buildings, 600 ATMs, and hundreds of vehicles, according to Deputy Interior Minister Ali Akbar Pourjamshidian.
Human rights groups and activists say security forces employed tactics rarely seen at such scale, including firing from rooftops, shooting birdshot into crowds, and deploying motorcycle-riding paramilitary units to chase and detain protesters.
“The vast majority of protesters were peaceful,” said Raha Bahreini of Amnesty International, citing video footage showing families and children chanting and marching. “The authorities have opened fire unlawfully.”
Footage circulating online shows Basij volunteers, the Revolutionary Guard’s volunteer arm, alongside anti-riot police equipped with assault rifles, pellet guns, helmets, and body armor. Iran’s semiofficial ILNA news agency reported that Tehran’s Farabi Eye Hospital called in all current and retired doctors to treat a surge of eye injuries, many believed to be caused by metal birdshot, a pattern also seen during the 2022 protests following the death of Mahsa Amini.
After nearly two weeks without releasing any official figures, Iran’s government on Wednesday acknowledged 3,117 deaths, saying 2,427 were civilians and security forces, while labeling the remaining 690 as “terrorists.”
This contrasts sharply with the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which reported 5,137 deaths as of Saturday, including 4,834 demonstrators, 208 government-affiliated personnel, 54 children, and 41 civilians not participating in protests. The group also said more than 27,700 people have been arrested nationwide.
Despite the absence of large-scale demonstrations in recent days, uncertainty looms over potential renewed unrest. Traditionally, Iranians hold memorial services 40 days after a death, placing a possible flashpoint around February 17. Satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press show heavy daily traffic at Behesht-e Zahra cemetery in southern Tehran, where many of those killed are being buried. Online videos from the site capture mourners chanting, “Death to Khamenei!”
Journalist Elaheh Mohammadi of the pro-reform newspaper Ham Mihan, recently shuttered by authorities, wrote online: “The city smells of death. A whole country is in mourning.”
As internal tensions persist, the regional and international stakes have escalated. On Saturday, Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Mohammad Pakpour warned the United States and Israel to “avoid any miscalculation,” saying his forces were “more ready than ever, finger on the trigger,” according to Nournews, a media outlet close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
The warning comes as U.S. President Donald Trump ordered American naval assets, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, into the region. Trump has repeatedly said the killing of peaceful protesters and the threat of mass executions are red lines for U.S. military action.
“We have a massive fleet heading in that direction and maybe we won’t have to use it,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, while also referencing past U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and warning that future action would make earlier attacks “look like peanuts.”
Iran’s top prosecutor, Mohammad Movahedi, denied Trump’s claim that Tehran halted the execution of hundreds of detainees, calling it false in comments carried by the judiciary’s Mizan news agency.
The rising tensions have begun to ripple through global travel. Air France and Luxair suspended or delayed flights to Dubai over the weekend, citing security concerns. Arrival boards at Dubai International Airport also showed cancellations by Dutch carriers KLM and Transavia, while some KLM flights to Tel Aviv were grounded.
With Iran still under its most comprehensive internet blackout to date and mass arrests continuing, the full human toll remains difficult to verify. What is clear, analysts say, is that the unrest and the government’s response have pushed the country and the wider region into one of its most volatile moments in decades.
