WASHINGTON/DUBAI — Hopes for a negotiated end to the Iran war have suffered another setback after fresh attacks on commercial shipping in the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea, while Iran and the United States remain deadlocked over the future of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington moves to intensify economic pressure on Tehran.
A senior Iranian source told Reuters on Wednesday that there had been no progress in efforts to revive the interim peace arrangement reached in June and establish a timetable for its implementation. Tehran says Washington violated the agreement shortly after it was reached, while the United States accuses Iran of failing to fulfill commitments to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The diplomatic impasse comes as maritime attacks have added a dangerous new dimension to the conflict. On Tuesday, Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked the Egyptian-owned cargo ship Tihamah in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, killing four crew members and two Yemeni rescuers, according to Reuters. Ten others were injured. The Houthis claimed the vessel was carrying military equipment bound for Saudi Arabia, although that claim could not be independently verified.
In a separate incident in the Gulf of Oman, the U.S. military disabled the Panama-flagged container ship Vela Nova after saying it was attempting to violate the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. A U.S. Navy helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles into the vessel’s engine room after the crew allegedly ignored warnings. No deaths were reported among the 17 crew members.
The attacks are occurring as commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely depressed. Reuters reported that only eight vessels were tracked passing through the waterway on Tuesday, the lowest daily figure in a week. That compares with roughly 130 to 140 vessels a day before Iran closed the strait following the U.S.-Israeli attacks that began on Feb. 28.
The disruption has significant global consequences because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Reuters reported that the waterway handled about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows before the war.
The renewed violence has also pushed oil prices higher. Brent crude was trading at $89.26 a barrel on Wednesday, up 0.4%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.7% to $83.77. Both benchmarks had gained more than $1 earlier in the session as traders reacted to the shipping attacks and the breakdown in expectations for a quick diplomatic settlement.
Against that backdrop, U.S. President Donald Trump is turning increasingly toward economic pressure after repeated diplomatic efforts have failed to produce a lasting settlement. His administration has argued that months of military action have placed Iran’s economy under severe strain and that additional financial pressure could force Tehran to accept U.S. demands, including restrictions on its nuclear program and the reopening of Hormuz.
The shift comes despite Trump’s earlier criticism of sanctions as ineffective in changing Iran’s nuclear policy. The U.S. Treasury, however, has continued expanding its sanctions campaign. On Aug. 7, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control targeted networks it said were helping Iran’s banking system move hundreds of millions of dollars, describing the action as part of the administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign.
Treasury also announced sanctions against Iranian-linked cryptocurrency exchanges and financial networks accused of helping the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other Iranian entities move funds and evade sanctions.
Trump has simultaneously introduced new demands into the stalled negotiations. After Iran called for compensation and an end to U.S. sanctions as part of any peace agreement, Trump said Iran should also pay compensation for deaths and damage attributed to Tehran over decades. Reuters described the demand as a new element that could further complicate negotiations over reopening Hormuz.
Iran, meanwhile, has hardened its position on the strategic waterway. Senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless Washington met Tehran’s conditions, which include lifting sanctions and addressing broader regional issues.
The June interim agreement had called for an immediate and permanent end to military operations and established a 60-day period, extendable by mutual consent, for the two sides to negotiate a final arrangement involving Iran’s nuclear program and U.S. sanctions. The agreement subsequently unraveled, with Trump declaring it over in July and Iran later describing it as suspended.
Pakistan has continued diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing a complete collapse of the talks. Pakistani officials have expressed optimism that Washington and Tehran could still reach some form of agreement, but the latest attacks and increasingly incompatible demands have made a rapid breakthrough less certain.
The International Maritime Organization has repeatedly warned that the continuing attacks pose a serious threat to civilian seafarers, international trade and freedom of navigation. The IMO has urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint and avoid exposing crews to unacceptable risks, stressing that seafarers should never become casualties of conflicts in which they are not parties.
With shipping traffic through Hormuz at a fraction of its prewar level, attacks continuing at other regional chokepoints and diplomacy once again stalled, the crisis is increasingly threatening to become both a prolonged military confrontation and a sustained disruption to global energy and maritime trade.
PAGASA’s weather monitoring products are focused on Philippine weather systems and do not identify a weather event relevant to the current maritime crisis in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman or Red Sea. The shipping disruptions reported by Reuters and international maritime authorities are being attributed to the conflict, security threats and military blockades rather than weather conditions.
Edgardo Hernal started college at UP Diliman and received his BA in Economics from San Sebastian College, Manila, and Masters in Information Systems Management from Keller Graduate School of Management of DeVry University in Oak Brook, IL. He has 25 years of copy editing and management experience at Thomson West, a subsidiary of Thomson Reuters.
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