WASHINGTON, United States | Oil prices remain near $100 a barrel six months into the U.S.-Iran conflict, but the market has so far avoided some of the far steeper increases energy analysts initially feared, with China’s large strategic petroleum reserves and reduced crude imports helping ease pressure on global demand, according to the Associated Press and energy data cited by U.S. analysts.
When the conflict began in late February, analysts warned that a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies could send crude prices sharply higher. Brent crude is now hovering around $100 a barrel after briefly reaching about $126 in late April, compared with an average of roughly $69 a barrel in 2025.
China has played an important role in limiting additional pressure on the market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Beijing had accumulated about 1.4 billion barrels in strategic oil reserves by the end of 2025. China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer and Iran’s largest crude buyer, has drawn on those reserves while cutting imports as fighting and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz affected regional oil flows.
China’s crude imports averaged about 8.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter, nearly 4 million barrels per day, or 32%, below the first quarter, according to U.S. data cited by AP. Energy analysts said the reduction in Chinese purchases helped moderate global demand and, in turn, limited the upward pressure on prices in the United States and other major markets.
The cushion is not guaranteed to last. Recent attacks by Iran-backed groups have disrupted other energy routes, including a temporary shutdown of a major Saudi pipeline carrying crude to the Red Sea. The Houthis have also increased activity around the southern Red Sea, adding another potential threat to energy and commercial shipping.
Bank of America analysts recently projected Brent crude at about $83 a barrel for the second half of the year if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes. They also estimated that a prolonged chokehold on the waterway could push prices to $95-$120 a barrel, while serious damage to major energy infrastructure could produce spikes as high as $150. These are forecasts rather than current prices.
The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because it carries a substantial share of the world’s seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Any prolonged disruption therefore affects not only countries in the Middle East but also major Asian and European economies that depend heavily on imported energy.
China’s strategy has historical roots. After the 1973 Arab oil embargo exposed the vulnerability of major economies to sudden supply disruptions, countries including the United States, Japan and China developed policies designed to strengthen energy security and build emergency reserves. Beijing accelerated its own strategic stockpiling over the past two decades as part of a broader effort to reduce exposure to overseas supply shocks. AP reported that China’s current policy also emphasizes energy self-reliance and alternative energy sources.
The energy issue is expected to feature in talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during Xi’s planned visit to Washington next week. Reuters reported that the two countries are also discussing potential reductions in China’s tariffs on U.S. liquefied natural gas as part of a broader package of energy, agriculture and trade measures.
For consumers, however, the relief remains limited. Reuters reported that U.S. retail diesel prices had reached a record $6.45 a gallon by Friday, while gasoline averaged $4.47, illustrating how disruptions in global energy markets can continue to affect fuel costs even when crude prices remain below the most extreme forecasts.
Si Venus L Peñaflor ay naging editor-in-chief ng Newsworld, isang lokal na pahayagan ng Laguna. Publisher din siya ng Daystar Gazette at Tutubi News Magazine. Siya ay isa ring pintor at doll face designer ng Ninay Dolls, ang unang Manikang Pilipino. Kasali siya sa DesignCrowd sa rank na #305 sa 640,000 graphic designers sa buong daigdig. Kasama din siya sa unang Local TV Broadcast sa Laguna na Beyond Manila. Aktibong kasapi siya ng San Pablo Jaycees Senate bilang isang JCI Senator.
- Venus L Peñaflor
- Venus L Peñaflor
- Venus L Peñaflor
- Venus L Peñaflor
