Trump says Iran war will end after midterms as Houthis threaten key shipping route

WASHINGTON/CAIRO/DUBAI | U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects the war with Iran to end after the November midterm elections, even as fighting intensified around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen moved closer to another critical maritime chokepoint.

Trump’s prediction came as the six-month-old conflict entered a new and potentially more dangerous phase, with Iran reporting attacks on 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. forces sank five Iranian oil tankers. At the same time, fighting involving the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has intensified around Yemen’s Red Sea coast, threatening the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another major artery for global commerce and energy supplies.

Speaking at a Republican midterm convention, Trump said he expected the conflict to end immediately after the November elections, arguing that Iran could no longer withstand U.S. economic and military pressure.

He also renewed a warning against Iran over activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a site associated with the country’s nuclear program. Trump has threatened since July to strike the location, saying the United States would respond forcefully if Iran continued activities there.

The United States and Israel launched their military campaign against Iran on February 28, with Washington citing concerns over Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are peaceful.

Despite Trump’s prediction, there was little evidence Thursday of an imminent settlement. Reuters reported that the conflict has become a battle of attrition, with repeated attacks on shipping and continuing pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict is also spreading across another vital maritime route. Iran-backed Houthi forces have entered the strategic Yemeni port city of Mokha, according to AP, bringing them closer to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. The advance threatens a fragile truce in Yemen and could further disrupt international shipping.

Saudi Arabia has reported a series of recent Houthi missile and drone attacks on cities and oil-related facilities in its southwest. Saudi authorities said at least 73 people were wounded in attacks earlier this week, while the Houthis have claimed responsibility for strikes on Saudi military and energy targets.

The developments have raised concern because Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb form two separate but interconnected gateways for energy shipments from the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that about 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait in 2024, equivalent to roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. About one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade also passed through the waterway that year.

The Bab el-Mandeb is equally important for trade between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. Attacks by Yemen-based Houthi forces on commercial vessels beginning in November 2023 forced many ships to avoid the route and sail around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant time and cost to voyages between Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

Recent disruptions have again affected global energy markets. Brent crude was trading above $100 a barrel on Thursday as shipping through both Hormuz and the Red Sea remained heavily disrupted, according to Reuters.

The prolonged conflict is also drawing comparisons with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that followed the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Reuters reported that analysts increasingly see parallels between the Iran campaign and those earlier conflicts, particularly concerns over an open-ended war without a clearly defined exit strategy. Trump campaigned for his second term as a president who would avoid prolonged foreign wars, but his Iran campaign has now entered its seventh month.

The historical comparison comes 25 years after the September 11 attacks, which killed nearly 3,000 people and triggered the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 after the administration of President George W. Bush argued that Saddam Hussein’s government possessed weapons of mass destruction. Those claims were later found to have been based on faulty intelligence.

The wars eventually became lengthy and politically divisive, contributing to a strong U.S. public backlash against military intervention overseas.

Unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, however, the current Iran campaign has relied primarily on air and naval power rather than the large-scale deployment of U.S. ground forces and occupation of territory. Reuters reported that the conflict has nevertheless imposed economic and military costs on the United States while failing to produce a clear end to hostilities.

For now, Trump is predicting an end after the November 3 midterm elections. But with Iran continuing attacks around Hormuz and the Houthis advancing toward the Bab el-Mandeb, the two strategic waterways remain flashpoints capable of extending the conflict far beyond the battlefield and into global energy and shipping markets.