BAGHDAD, Iraq | US forces are set to leave their last military bases in Iraq by September 30, ending more than two decades of American military involvement in the country and raising questions about the balance of power as Iran-backed armed groups retain significant influence.
The withdrawal is being carried out under a 2024 agreement between Washington and Baghdad that ended the US-led coalition’s military mission against Islamic State in Iraq and shifted the relationship toward bilateral security cooperation. Hundreds of US troops remaining mainly in northern Iraq are expected to leave, with many redeployed to Jordan and other countries in the region, according to the Associated Press.
Iran and its allied Iraqi groups have portrayed the US departure as a victory. Reuters reported that Iran has deep influence in Iraq, where about 4,500 Americans have died during more than two decades of war and military operations. Analysts and Iraqi security figures cited by Reuters said the end of the US military presence could give Tehran and Iran-backed factions greater room to expand their political and security influence.
The withdrawal comes as Iraq faces a separate dispute over the future of powerful armed groups linked to Iran. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government has sought to bring non-state armed factions under greater control of the Iraqi military, but several militia groups have indicated that they have no intention of surrendering their weapons. Many of these groups are formally part of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, which are incorporated into the country’s security structure, although some factions have operated with considerable independence.
The US military presence in Iraq dates to the 2003 invasion that toppled President Saddam Hussein. American forces withdrew in 2011, but returned in 2014 as part of an international campaign after Islamic State captured large areas of Iraq and Syria. The US-led coalition helped Iraqi forces defeat the group’s territorial control, although Islamic State has remained capable of carrying out attacks through scattered cells.
Washington and Baghdad formally agreed in September 2024 to conclude the coalition’s military mission in Iraq and transition toward bilateral security cooperation. The agreement initially set the end of the coalition mission in Iraq for no later than September 2025, while allowing the broader coalition mission connected to operations in Syria to continue until September 2026, subject to conditions on the ground.
US forces had already withdrawn from several major Iraqi bases. In January, Iraq’s Defense Ministry said Iraqi forces had assumed full control of Ain al-Asad Airbase in western Iraq following the departure of US-led coalition personnel. The remaining American presence was concentrated largely in Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region.
The departure also carries particular significance for Iraq’s Kurds. The United States has been a major security partner of the Kurdistan Regional Government, while Kurdish officials have expressed concern that the removal of US forces and air defense systems could leave the region more exposed to attacks from Iran and Iran-backed groups.
The end of the US military mission does not mean the end of the US-Iraq relationship. US officials have said the two countries could continue with a normal bilateral security partnership after the withdrawal. The immediate challenge for Baghdad will be maintaining control over its security forces and armed factions while preventing a resurgence of Islamic State and managing the competing influence of Washington and Tehran.
Edgardo Hernal started college at UP Diliman and received his BA in Economics from San Sebastian College, Manila, and Masters in Information Systems Management from Keller Graduate School of Management of DeVry University in Oak Brook, IL. He has 25 years of copy editing and management experience at Thomson West, a subsidiary of Thomson Reuters.
- EDGARDO HERNAL
- EDGARDO HERNAL
- EDGARDO HERNAL
- EDGARDO HERNAL
