China scales humanoid robot production but struggles to expand real-world demand

HONG KONG — Chinese manufacturers are rapidly expanding their ability to produce humanoid robots at scale, but industry players and analysts say the bigger challenge lies in finding enough commercial buyers to match the growing supply.

Chinese-made humanoid robots are increasingly demonstrating advanced capabilities such as performing backflips, directing traffic, making coffee, and handling basic service tasks. Robotics firms say they are securing thousands of orders from government agencies and private companies, driven in part by China’s aging population and rising labor costs.

However, experts caution that demand has not kept pace with production capacity, raising concerns about commercialization in what Morgan Stanley estimates could become a $5 trillion global humanoid robotics market.

China and the United States currently dominate the sector. While U.S. firms are seen as stronger in artificial intelligence systems that power robotic decision-making, China maintains an advantage in large-scale manufacturing, hardware supply chains, and data collection used for training robots.

Shanghai-based startup Matrix Robotics produces the MATRIX-3 humanoid robot, a 1.7-meter-tall model equipped with articulated hands capable of precise movement. The unit is priced at about $99,000. Founder and chief executive Allan Zhang said the company has received roughly 1,000 orders from clients including hotels and coffee chains, though only a few hundred units have been produced so far.

Matrix Robotics says it expects to manufacture up to 5,000 units this year depending on demand.

In southern China, EngineAI is marketing humanoid robots for roles such as security guards and museum guides, while also showcasing models capable of dancing and boxing. A basic version is priced at 180,000 yuan ($26,600), according to the company. “The next step will be to move into more real-life scenarios,” said Issac Li, head of brand and marketing at EngineAI.

Despite such advances, analysts say most humanoid robots remain limited in practical deployment. Samm Sacks, a senior fellow at the New America think tank, said many systems are still better suited for demonstrations than unpredictable environments. Venture capital investor Chibo Tang of Gobi Partners noted that without stronger demand, manufacturers face difficulties scaling production.

China had more than 140 humanoid robot manufacturers and over 330 models in 2025, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Authorities have previously warned of potential overcapacity as commercialization lags behind development.

Much of the current demand comes from corporate laboratories, research institutions, and state-owned enterprises. Morgan Stanley estimates that more than 2 billion yuan ($295 million) in orders this year were placed for use in power plants, data centers, and entertainment settings.

Experts say broader adoption remains constrained by cost, durability, and the need for structured environments. “The economics are tough: humanoid robots remain expensive to produce, fragile in operation, and dependent on highly structured environments to function,” Sacks said.

Industrial applications are seen as the most viable near-term market, particularly in logistics and manufacturing. However, many factories already rely on traditional robotic arms that are cheaper and more efficient for repetitive tasks, limiting the need for humanoid systems.

Deployment is also increasing outside China. Startups in Japan and the United States are facing similar challenges in securing large-scale industrial buyers.

Still, Chinese companies report accelerating real-world testing. Analysts attribute this partly to greater social acceptance of rapid technological change in China and strong state support aligned with national industrial policy goals.

According to Barclays research, Chinese firms accounted for around 85 percent of global humanoid robot production last year. Omdia data shows that of more than 13,000 units shipped in 2025, leading Chinese firms AGIBOT and Unitree each delivered more than 5,000 units, while U.S. competitors such as Figure AI and Tesla shipped only several hundred.

Market forecasts remain optimistic. Morgan Stanley expects Chinese humanoid robot sales to more than double to about 28,000 units this year, while Omdia projects annual global shipments could exceed 1 million units in the early 2030s.

Some companies report early profitability. Unitree said it generated 1.7 billion yuan ($250 million) in revenue last year, with more than 278 million yuan ($41 million) in profit.

Manufacturers also expect costs to decline as production scales and more components are sourced locally. Morgan Stanley estimates that Chinese humanoid robots are already about 20 percent cheaper than foreign equivalents, with average prices potentially falling to around $21,000 by 2050, down from $46,000 last year. Some entry-level models are already priced below $6,000.

Despite cost reductions, a report by the Mercator Institute for China Studies warned that humanoid robots remain too expensive for widespread deployment.

Another major challenge is data collection for training. Industry leaders say large, diverse datasets from real-world environments are needed for robots to perform complex tasks beyond repetitive functions.

For now, analysts say mass adoption remains years away. “The mass production capability in robotic area is still at the very early stage,” said Eric Guo, founder and chief executive of Shenzhen-based AI² Robotics.