GENEVA — Global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with the Arctic warming significantly faster than the rest of the planet, according to a new climate outlook released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Kingdom’s Met Office.
The annual report, which provides probabilistic forecasts for temperature and rainfall patterns, projects that global mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels recorded between 1850 and 1900.
Scientists involved in the assessment said the findings reflect a continued upward trend in global warming driven primarily by greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, including fossil fuel use and deforestation. The Arctic is expected to warm more than three times faster than the global average, a pattern linked to accelerated ice loss and feedback effects that trap heat in the region.
“There is very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature is continuing to rise,” said Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office.
The report highlights growing concern that the 1.5°C threshold set under the 2015 Paris Agreement will be temporarily exceeded more frequently in the coming years. That agreement committed countries to limiting long term global warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to keep it under 1.5°C, a level widely viewed by scientists as critical to avoiding the most severe impacts of climate change.
According to the WMO projections, there is a high likelihood that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels on a global average. The report also suggests that one of those years could exceed 2024, currently the warmest year on record, when global temperatures temporarily crossed the 1.5°C mark for the first time.
Climate experts warn that even brief exceedances of 1.5°C increase the risk of more intense heatwaves, heavier rainfall events, prolonged droughts, and disruptions to food and water systems. The WMO noted that regional impacts will vary, but extreme weather patterns are expected to intensify across many parts of Asia, including Southeast Asia, which is highly vulnerable to flooding, typhoons, and heat stress.
The Philippines, in particular, has been identified in previous climate assessments as among the countries most exposed to climate-related disasters due to its geographic location along the typhoon belt and its reliance on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and fisheries.
The WMO emphasized that while short-term fluctuations in temperature are influenced by natural variability such as El Niño and La Niña, the long-term trend remains driven by human-caused emissions. It added that urgent reductions in carbon emissions are necessary to stabilize global temperatures and reduce the risk of irreversible climate impacts.
The findings add pressure on governments ahead of upcoming international climate negotiations, where countries are expected to review their updated emissions targets and adaptation strategies under the Paris Agreement framework.
Paraluman P. Funtanilla
Paraluman P. Funtanilla is Tutubi News Magazine's Marketing Specialist and is a Contributing Editor. She finished her degree in Communication Arts in De La Salle Lipa. She has worked as a Digital Marketer for start-up businesses and small business spaces for the past two years. She has earned certificates from Coursera on Brand Management: Aligning Business Brand and Behavior and Viral Marketing and How to Craft Contagious Content. She also worked with Asia Express Romania TV Show.
- Paraluman P. Funtanilla
- Paraluman P. Funtanilla
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