Climate change could drive significant losses in global plant biodiversity by the end of the century, as shifting temperatures and rainfall patterns reduce or eliminate suitable habitats for thousands of species, according to new scientific research.

A large-scale study examining more than 67,000 species of vascular plants found that between 7 percent and 16 percent could lose over 90 percent of their geographic range under future climate scenarios, placing them at high risk of extinction. Vascular plants include nearly all major plant groups that rely on water and nutrient transport systems.

The research, which analyzed millions of plant occurrence records alongside greenhouse gas emissions projections for 2081 to 2100, suggests that climate change is not only shifting where plants can survive but also shrinking the overall space where necessary environmental conditions align.

Among the species identified as highly vulnerable are the Catalina ironwood, a rare tree native to California, bluish spike-moss, which traces its lineage back more than 400 million years, and roughly one-third of eucalyptus species found in Australia.

Researchers explained that a plant’s habitat depends on a combination of factors including temperature, rainfall, soil conditions, land use, and landscape features such as shade. As these conditions shift unevenly, many regions are expected to lose the specific environmental “mix” required to sustain existing plant communities.

Junna Wang of Yale University and Xiaoli Dong of the University of California, Davis, who helped lead the study published in the journal Science, said plants are effectively trying to track a “moving climate envelope” as global temperatures rise. While some species may shift toward higher latitudes or elevations, they noted that temperature changes alone do not determine survival.

In many cases, the study found that even when plants were assumed to be capable of dispersing freely to newly suitable areas, extinction risks remained largely unchanged. This suggests that habitat loss, rather than movement limitations, is a key driver of projected declines.

The findings have important implications for conservation strategies. Approaches such as assisted migration, which involves relocating species to more suitable environments, may not be sufficient if overall habitable space continues to diminish under climate stress.

Regional impacts are expected to vary. Arctic plant species adapted to cold conditions may lose habitat as extreme cold zones shrink, while dry regions including parts of the western United States and Mediterranean climates face heightened risks from drought, reduced soil moisture, and more frequent wildfires. Coastal areas in southern and eastern Australia may also restrict plant migration due to geographic barriers.

At the same time, the study projects that plant diversity could increase in around 28 percent of global land areas as species shift into newly suitable environments, particularly in parts of the tropics and subtropics where rainfall changes may support new growth conditions.

However, researchers cautioned that these gains in local diversity do not indicate overall ecological improvement. Instead, the changes represent a global reshuffling of plant life, with species disappearing from historical ranges and forming new, untested ecological communities.

Such shifts could have wide-ranging effects on ecosystems and human societies. Plants play a central role in regulating climate, stabilizing soils, supporting wildlife, and providing essential resources such as food, timber, and medicine.

Scientists warned that declining vegetation cover could reduce the planet’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide, potentially intensifying global warming and creating a feedback loop in which climate change further undermines plant life.

Protecting plant diversity, the researchers said, is therefore critical not only for conservation but also for maintaining the ecological systems that support human survival.