CAIRO — A planned United States naval blockade of Iran is being described by experts as a significant and open-ended military operation that could escalate tensions, strain a fragile ceasefire, and disrupt the global economy.

The move, backed by Donald Trump, is aimed at pressuring Tehran to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and accept broader peace terms. Analysts say that if successful, the strategy could weaken Iran’s leverage in negotiations and help stabilize global oil markets. However, they caution that enforcing such a blockade would require a sustained deployment of military resources and could trigger retaliation.

Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official, said the operation would be difficult to sustain. “Trump wants a quick fix. The reality is, this mission is difficult to execute alone and likely unsustainable over the medium to long-term,” she said.

The U.S. military has yet to disclose key details of the operation, including the number of warships involved, whether air support will be used or if regional allies will participate. Analysts note that while a strong naval presence could deter commercial vessels from transporting Iranian oil, the enforcement of the blockade raises complex questions, including whether the United States would intercept or seize ships attempting to pass.

The blockade is expected to take effect following the collapse of ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan. The ceasefire, which halted weeks of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, is now under threat as tensions rise across the region.

Iranian officials have issued strong warnings in response. A military spokesperson described potential U.S. restrictions on shipping as “piracy” and warned that any action against Iranian ports could prompt retaliation across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Tehran has also signaled that military vessels approaching the strait could be viewed as violating the ceasefire.

The standoff has already affected global markets. Oil prices surged as uncertainty over shipping routes intensified, with limited traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor that typically handles a significant share of the world’s oil supply. Higher energy costs have begun to ripple into broader economic concerns, including rising prices for fuel and basic goods.

The blockade also comes amid continued regional conflict. Israel has maintained military operations against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, which U.S. and Israeli officials say fall outside the scope of the ceasefire, a position disputed by Iran.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis remain uncertain. Talks between Washington and Tehran ended without agreement, with disagreements centered on Iran’s nuclear program and U.S. demands for strict limitations. JD Vance said negotiations stalled after Iran rejected key conditions, including commitments to halt uranium enrichment and abandon nuclear weapons ambitions. Iranian officials maintain that their nuclear program is peaceful.

Other global actors have urged restraint. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani emphasized the importance of keeping international waterways open and warned against using them as leverage in negotiations. Meanwhile, European leaders expressed concern over the potential economic and security consequences of further escalation.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has already adjusted its outlook, cutting its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter due to the impact of the conflict, though it expects a rebound later in the year.

Despite ongoing mediation efforts, including initiatives from Pakistan and Turkey, the path forward remains unclear. The current ceasefire is set to expire soon, and both sides have signaled readiness to respond if hostilities resume.

With thousands already reported killed across multiple countries and critical infrastructure damaged, the situation underscores the risks of further escalation. Analysts warn that the unfolding crisis could test not only military limits but also the resilience of global economic systems.

In a related development, Trump also claimed that U.S. military forces have already begun enforcing the blockade on Iranian ports, framing the move as part of a broader strategy to pressure Tehran into accepting a deal that would end the conflict and secure key global shipping routes.